niche-opportunity-finder

# Niche Opportunity Finder

Analyze search demand, competition, and available affiliate programs to surface
untapped niches worth entering. Outputs a scored shortlist with clear reasoning
so beginners can start promoting in under an hour.

## Stage

This skill belongs to Stage S1: Research

## When to Use

- User is new to affiliate marketing and has no niche
- User is unhappy with their current niche and wants alternatives
- User wants to validate a niche idea before investing time
- User asks which niches are trending or low-competition
- User wants to find niches underserved by existing affiliates

## Input Schema

```
{
  interests: string[]       # (optional) Topics user already knows or cares about
  audience: string          # (optional) Who they plan to reach — "beginners", "professionals", "parents"
  platform: string          # (optional) Where they'll publish — "blog", "tiktok", "youtube", "linkedin"
  budget: string            # (optional) "zero" | "low ($0-50/mo)" | "medium ($50-200/mo)"
  goal: string              # (optional) "first $100" | "side income $1k/mo" | "full-time income"
  avoid: string[]           # (optional) Niches or topics to exclude
}
```

## Workflow

### Step 1: Understand the User's Situation

Ask (if not already clear from context):
1. Any topics you already know well or are curious about?
2. Where will you publish content? (blog, TikTok, YouTube, newsletter...)
3. What's your income goal in the first 6 months?

If user says "just find me something" → default to: AI/SaaS tools, YouTube or blog,
goal = first $500/mo.

### Step 2: Generate Niche Candidates

Produce 8-12 niche candidates across 3 tiers:

**Tier A — Trending (high demand, growing fast):**
Use `web_search "fastest growing affiliate niches [current year]"` and
`web_search "trending affiliate programs [current year]"` to find niches with
momentum. Look for: AI tools, health tech, fintech, remote work tools, creator economy.

**Tier B — Evergreen (stable demand, proven programs):**
Always-on niches: personal finance, web hosting, email marketing, SEO tools,
fitness/wellness, online education, cybersecurity.

**Tier C — Micro-niches (narrow, low competition, high intent):**
Examples: AI tools for lawyers, budgeting apps for freelancers, SEO for Shopify
stores, productivity tools for ADHD. These are combinations of a vertical + a job
or persona. Use `web_search "[vertical] affiliate programs [persona]"` to discover.

### Step 3: Score Each Niche

Score each candidate on 4 dimensions (1-10 scale each):

| Dimension | Weight | How to Assess |
|-----------|--------|---------------|
| Search Demand | 30% | `web_search "[niche] how to" — look at result count and autosuggest depth |
| Program Availability | 30% | Search list.affitor.com or `web_search "[niche] affiliate programs"` — count quality programs |
| Competition Level | 25% | Search "[niche] best tools" — how saturated is the top 10? Fewer exact-match affiliate sites = less competition. Score 10 = very low competition |
| Content Potential | 15% | Can tutorials, comparisons, listicles, and reviews be made for this niche easily? |

**Overall score** = weighted average. Cut anything below 5.5.

Verdict: 7.5+ = "High Opportunity" / 5.5-7.4 = "Worth Testing" / <5.5 = "Saturated/Skip"

### Step 4: Validate Top 3 Niches on list.affitor.com

For the top 3 niches, check `list.affitor.com` (see `references/list-affitor-api.md`)
to verify real programs exist with good commission structures:
- At least 3 programs with `reward_value` 20%+ OR `reward_type` cps_recurring
- At least one program with `cookie_days` >= 30
- Programs with `stars_count` > 5 (community-validated quality)

If a niche scores well on demand but has no programs on list.affitor.com, use
`web_search "[niche] affiliate program signup"` to verify alternatives exist.

### Step 5: Build the Opportunity Brief

For the top-ranked niche, produce a one-page opportunity brief (see Output Format).
For runner-up niches, produce summary cards only.

### Step 6: Recommend Next Steps

Map user's chosen niche to the affiliate funnel:
1. Use `affiliate-program-search` to find the best specific program in this niche
2. Use `tiktok-script-writer` or `twitter-thread-writer` for first content
3. Use `commission-calculator` to project first 90 days of income

### Step 7: Self-Validation

Before presenting output, verify:

- [ ] Search demand backed by data (autosuggest depth, result count)
- [ ] Top niche has ≥3 programs with 20%+ commission on list.affitor.com
- [ ] Competition score reflects actual top-10 SERP analysis
- [ ] Content angles are specific and actionable, not generic

If any check fails, fix the output before delivering. Do not flag the checklist to the user — just ensure the output passes.

## Output Schema

```
{
  output_schema_version: "1.0.0"  # Semver — bump major on breaking changes
  top_niche: {
    name: string              # "AI Productivity Tools"
    tier: string              # "Trending" | "Evergreen" | "Micro-niche"
    score: number             # 8.4
    verdict: string           # "High Opportunity"
    why: string               # 2-3 sentence rationale
    example_programs: string[] # ["Notion", "ClickUp", "Reclaim AI"]
    content_angles: string[]  # ["comparison", "workflow walkthrough", "beginner guide"]
    difficulty: string        # "Beginner-friendly" | "Intermediate" | "Advanced"
  }
  runner_up: NicheCandidate   # Same structure
  all_scored: NicheScore[]    # Full list with scores
  recommended_next_skill: string  # "affiliate-program-search"
}
```

## Output Format

```
## Niche Opportunity Report

### Top Pick: [Niche Name]

**Opportunity Score:** [X.X/10] — [Verdict]
**Tier:** [Trending / Evergreen / Micro-niche]
**Difficulty:** [Beginner-friendly / Intermediate / Advanced]

**Why this niche:**
[2-3 sentences covering demand, program quality, and why it's not yet saturated]

| Dimension | Score | Evidence |
|-----------|-------|----------|
| Search Demand | X/10 | [What search data showed] |
| Program Availability | X/10 | [X programs found, avg commission Y%] |
| Competition Level | X/10 | [What competitor landscape looks like] |
| Content Potential | X/10 | [Content formats that work here] |
| **Overall** | **X.X/10** | **[Verdict]** |

**Example affiliate programs:** [Program A], [Program B], [Program C]

**Content angles to start with:**
1. [Angle 1 — specific post/video idea]
2. [Angle 2]
3. [Angle 3]

---

### Runner-up: [Niche Name] — [X.X/10]
[2-sentence summary + why it's #2]

### Other Candidates Scored

| Niche | Score | Verdict | Note |
|-------|-------|---------|------|
| ...   | ...   | ...     | ...  |

---

## Next Steps

1. Run `affiliate-program-search` to find the best [Niche] program on list.affitor.com
2. Run `commission-calculator` to project 90-day earnings
3. Run `tiktok-script-writer` or `twitter-thread-writer` to create your first piece of content
```

## Error Handling

- **No interests provided:** Default to AI/SaaS tools niche. Explain the default.
- **Niche too broad (e.g., "health"):** Break into sub-niches and score each separately. Present as micro-niche grid.
- **Niche too narrow (e.g., "left-handed guitarists who use Linux"):** Widen one dimension and present a spectrum of options.
- **No programs found for top niche:** Still present the niche but flag program gap. Suggest direct brand deals as alternative.
- **User picks a saturated niche:** Don't just say no. Find the micro-niche angle within it that is less saturated.
- **Conflicting interests:** Ask user to pick one dimension (monetization speed vs. passion vs. content ease) and sort by that.

## Examples

**Example 1:**
User: "I want to start affiliate marketing but have no idea what niche to pick"
→ Ask: any interests? what platform? income goal?
→ If no answer: default to AI/SaaS tools on YouTube/TikTok, goal = first $500/mo
→ Generate 10 candidates, score all, return top 3 with detailed brief for #1

**Example 2:**
User: "Is fitness a good niche for affiliate marketing?"
→ Validate fitness niche: high demand, many programs (MyProtein, Noom, Whoop)
→ Flag: highly competitive on Google. Score = 6.2 "Worth Testing"
→ Suggest micro-niches: fitness for new moms, home gym under $500, wearables for runners
→ Score micro-niches — surface the strongest one

**Example 3:**
User: "I know a lot about Notion and productivity tools"
→ Lean into existing knowledge: AI productivity tools, note-taking apps, PKM space
→ Score with "expert authority" bonus — existing knowledge = faster content creation
→ Surface programs: Notion, Obsidian affiliate, ClickUp, Reclaim AI
→ Recommend micro-niche: "AI tools for knowledge workers" — score 8.1

## References

- `references/list-affitor-api.md` — how to fetch programs from list.affitor.com
- `shared/references/affiliate-glossary.md` — affiliate marketing terminology
- `shared/references/ftc-compliance.md` — disclosure requirements
- `shared/references/flywheel-connections.md` — master flywheel connection map

## Flywheel Connections

### Feeds Into
- `affiliate-program-search` (S1) — validated niches to search programs in
- `monopoly-niche-finder` (S1) — niche data for intersection analysis
- `keyword-cluster-architect` (S3) — niche defines keyword universe
- `content-moat-calculator` (S3) — niche for feasibility analysis

### Fed By
- `performance-report` (S6) — performance data identifies best-performing niches
- `conversion-tracker` (S6) — conversion data reveals profitable niches

### Feedback Loop
- Performance data from S6 shows which niche characteristics predict success → refine opportunity scoring

```yaml
chain_metadata:
  skill_slug: "niche-opportunity-finder"
  stage: "research"
  timestamp: string
  suggested_next:
    - "affiliate-program-search"
    - "monopoly-niche-finder"
    - "keyword-cluster-architect"
```