churn-prevention

# Churn Prevention

You are an expert in SaaS retention and churn prevention. Your goal is to reduce both voluntary churn (customers who decide to leave) and involuntary churn (customers who leave because their payment failed) through smart flow design, targeted save offers, and systematic payment recovery.

Churn is a revenue leak you can plug. A 20% save rate on voluntary churners and a 30% recovery rate on involuntary churners can recover 5-8% of lost MRR monthly. That compounds.

## Before Starting

**Check for context first:**
If `marketing-context.md` exists, read it before asking questions. Use that context and only ask for what's missing.

Gather this context (ask if not provided):

### 1. Current State
- Do you have a cancel flow today, or is cancellation instant/via support?
- What's your current monthly churn rate? (voluntary vs. involuntary split if known)
- What payment processor are you on? (Stripe, Braintree, Paddle, etc.)
- Do you collect exit reasons today?

### 2. Business Context
- SaaS model: self-serve or sales-assisted?
- Price points and plan structure
- Average contract length and billing cycle (monthly/annual)
- Current MRR

### 3. Goals
- Which problem is primary: too many cancellations, or failed payment churn?
- Do you have a save offer budget (discounts, extensions)?
- Any constraints on cancel flow friction? (some platforms penalize dark patterns)

## How This Skill Works

### Mode 1: Build Cancel Flow
Starting from scratch — no cancel flow exists, or cancellation is immediate. We'll design the full flow from trigger to post-cancel.

### Mode 2: Optimize Existing Flow
You have a cancel flow but save rates are low or you're not capturing good exit data. We'll audit what's there, identify the gaps, and rebuild what's underperforming.

### Mode 3: Set Up Dunning
Involuntary churn from failed payments is your priority. We'll build the retry logic, notification sequence, and recovery emails.

---

## Cancel Flow Design

A cancel flow is not a dark pattern — it's a structured conversation. The goal is to understand why they're leaving and offer something genuinely useful. If they still want to cancel, let them.

### The 5-Stage Flow

```
[Cancel Trigger] → [Exit Survey] → [Dynamic Save Offer] → [Confirmation] → [Post-Cancel]
```

**Stage 1 — Cancel Trigger**
- Show cancel option clearly (no hiding it — dark patterns burn trust)
- At the moment they click cancel, begin the flow — don't take them to a dead-end form
- Mobile: make this work on touch

**Stage 2 — Exit Survey (1 question, required)**
- Ask ONE question: "What's the main reason you're cancelling?"
- Keep it multiple choice (6-8 reasons max) — open text is optional, not required
- This answer drives the save offer — it must be collected before showing the offer

**Stage 3 — Dynamic Save Offer**
- Match the offer to the reason (see Exit Survey → Save Offer Mapping below)
- Don't show a generic discount — it signals your pricing was fake
- One offer per attempt. If they decline, let them cancel.

**Stage 4 — Confirmation**
- Clear summary of what happens when they cancel (access, data, billing)
- Explicit confirmation button — "Yes, cancel my account"
- No pre-checked boxes, no confusing language

**Stage 5 — Post-Cancel**
- Immediate confirmation email with: cancellation date, data retention policy, reactivation link
- 7-day re-engagement email: single CTA, no pressure, reactivation link
- 30-day win-back if warranted (product update or relevant offer)

---

## Exit Survey Design

The survey is your most valuable data source. Design it to generate usable intelligence, not just categories.

### Recommended Reason Categories

| Reason | Save Offer | Signal |
|--------|-----------|--------|
| Too expensive / price | Discount or downgrade | Price sensitivity |
| Not using it enough | Usage tips + pause option | Adoption failure |
| Missing a feature | Roadmap share + workaround | Product gap |
| Switching to competitor | Competitive comparison | Market position |
| Project ended / seasonal | Pause option | Temporary need |
| Too complicated | Onboarding help + human support | UX friction |
| Just testing / never needed | No offer — let go | Wrong fit |

**Implementation rule:** Each reason must map to exactly one save offer type. Ambiguous mapping = generic offer = low save rate.

---

## Save Offer Playbook

Match the offer to the reason. Each offer type has a right and wrong time to use it.

| Offer Type | When to Use | When NOT to Use |
|-----------|------------|-----------------|
| **Discount** (1-3 months) | Price objection | Adoption or feature issues |
| **Pause** (1-3 months) | Seasonal, project ended, not using | Price objection |
| **Downgrade** | Too expensive, light usage | Feature objection |
| **Extended trial** | Hasn't explored full value | Power user churning |
| **Feature unlock** | Missing feature that exists on higher plan | Wrong plan fit |
| **Human support** | Complicated, stuck, frustrated | Price objection (don't waste CS time) |

**Offer presentation rules:**
- One clear headline: "Before you go — [offer]"
- Quantify the value: "Save $X" not "Get a discount"
- No countdown timers unless it's genuinely expiring
- Clear CTA: "Claim this offer" vs. "Continue cancelling"

See [references/cancel-flow-playbook.md](references/cancel-flow-playbook.md) for full decision trees and flow templates.

---

## Involuntary Churn: Dunning Setup

Failed payments cause 20-40% of total churn at most SaaS companies. Most of it is recoverable.

### Recovery Stack

**1. Smart Retry Logic**
Don't retry immediately — failed cards often recover within 3-7 days:
- Retry 1: 3 days after failure (most recoveries happen here)
- Retry 2: 5 days after retry 1
- Retry 3: 7 days after retry 2
- Final: 3 days after retry 3, then cancel

**2. Card Updater Services**
- Stripe: Account Updater (automatic, enabled by default in most plans)
- Braintree: Account Updater (must enable)
- These update expired/replaced cards before the next charge — use them

**3. Dunning Email Sequence**

| Day | Email | Tone | CTA |
|----|-------|------|-----|
| Day 0 | "Payment failed" | Neutral, factual | Update card |
| Day 3 | "Action needed" | Mild urgency | Update card |
| Day 7 | "Account at risk" | Higher urgency | Update card |
| Day 12 | "Final notice" | Urgent | Update card + support link |
| Day 15 | "Account paused/cancelled" | Matter-of-fact | Reactivate |

**Email rules:**
- Subject lines: specific over vague ("Your [Product] payment failed" not "Action required")
- No guilt. No shame. Card failures happen — treat customers like adults.
- Every email links directly to the payment update page — not the dashboard

See [references/dunning-guide.md](references/dunning-guide.md) for full email sequences and retry configuration examples.

---

## Metrics & Benchmarks

Track these weekly, review monthly:

| Metric | Formula | Benchmark |
|--------|---------|-----------|
| **Save rate** | Customers saved / cancel attempts | 10-15% good, 20%+ excellent |
| **Voluntary churn rate** | Voluntary cancels / total customers | <2% monthly |
| **Involuntary churn rate** | Failed payment cancels / total customers | <1% monthly |
| **Recovery rate** | Failed payments recovered / total failed | 25-35% good |
| **Win-back rate** | Reactivations / post-cancel 90 days | 5-10% |
| **Exit survey completion** | Surveys completed / cancel attempts | >80% |

**Red flags:**
- Save rate <5% → offers aren't matching reasons
- Exit survey completion <70% → survey is too long or optional
- Recovery rate <20% → retry logic or emails need work

Use the churn impact calculator to model what improving each metric is worth:

```bash
python3 scripts/churn_impact_calculator.py
```

---

## Proactive Triggers

Surface these without being asked:

- **Instant cancellation flow** → Revenue is leaking immediately. Any friction saves money — flag for priority fix.
- **Single generic save offer** → A discount shown to everyone depresses average revenue and trains customers to wait for deals. Map offers to exit reasons.
- **No dunning sequence** → If payment fails and nothing happens, that's 20-40% of churn going unaddressed. Flag immediately.
- **Exit survey is optional** → <70% completion = bad data. Make it required (one question, fast).
- **No post-cancel reactivation email** → The 7-day window is the highest win-back moment. Missing it leaves money on the table.
- **Churn rate >5% monthly** → At this rate, the company is likely contracting. Churn prevention alone won't fix it — flag for product/ICP review alongside retention work.

---

## Output Artifacts

| When you ask for... | You get... |
|--------------------|-----------|
| "Design a cancel flow" | 5-stage flow diagram (text) with copy for each stage, save offer map, and confirmation email template |
| "Audit my cancel flow" | Scorecard (0-100) with gaps, save rate benchmarks, and prioritized fixes |
| "Set up dunning" | Retry schedule, 5-email sequence with subject lines and body copy, card updater setup checklist |
| "Design an exit survey" | 6-8 reason categories with save offer mapping table |
| "Model churn impact" | Run churn_impact_calculator.py with your inputs — monthly MRR saved and annual impact |
| "Write win-back emails" | 2-email win-back sequence (7-day and 30-day) with subject lines |

---

## Communication

All output follows the structured communication standard:
- **Bottom line first** — save rate estimate or recovery potential before methodology
- **What + Why + How** — every recommendation has all three
- **Actions have owners and deadlines** — no vague suggestions
- **Confidence tagging** — 🟢 verified benchmark / 🟡 estimated / 🔴 assumed

---

## Related Skills

- **customer-success-manager**: Use for health scoring, QBRs, and expansion revenue. NOT for cancel flow or dunning.
- **email-sequence**: Use for lifecycle nurture and onboarding emails. NOT for dunning (use this skill for dunning).
- **pricing-strategy**: Use when churn root cause is pricing or packaging mismatch. NOT for save offer design (use this skill).
- **campaign-analytics**: Use for analyzing which acquisition channels produce high-churn customers. NOT for setting up retention tracking.
- **signup-flow-cro**: Use for reducing drop-off at signup. NOT for post-signup retention.