polymarket-trader
Build, evaluate, and tune a Polymarket BTC 1h Up/Down trading strategy using Binance (resolution source) as the anchor. Use when: (1) designing a mispricing/edge model (fair probability vs market price), (2) adding regime filters (trend vs range), (3) debugging bad entries/exits from events.jsonl/state.json, (4) running quick offline analysis or parameter sweeps with the bundled scripts.
Best use case
polymarket-trader is best used when you need a repeatable AI agent workflow instead of a one-off prompt.
Build, evaluate, and tune a Polymarket BTC 1h Up/Down trading strategy using Binance (resolution source) as the anchor. Use when: (1) designing a mispricing/edge model (fair probability vs market price), (2) adding regime filters (trend vs range), (3) debugging bad entries/exits from events.jsonl/state.json, (4) running quick offline analysis or parameter sweeps with the bundled scripts.
Teams using polymarket-trader should expect a more consistent output, faster repeated execution, less prompt rewriting.
When to use this skill
- You want a reusable workflow that can be run more than once with consistent structure.
When not to use this skill
- You only need a quick one-off answer and do not need a reusable workflow.
- You cannot install or maintain the underlying files, dependencies, or repository context.
Installation
Claude Code / Cursor / Codex
Manual Installation
- Download SKILL.md from GitHub
- Place it in
.claude/skills/polymarket-trader/SKILL.mdinside your project - Restart your AI agent — it will auto-discover the skill
How polymarket-trader Compares
| Feature / Agent | polymarket-trader | Standard Approach |
|---|---|---|
| Platform Support | Not specified | Limited / Varies |
| Context Awareness | High | Baseline |
| Installation Complexity | Unknown | N/A |
Frequently Asked Questions
What does this skill do?
Build, evaluate, and tune a Polymarket BTC 1h Up/Down trading strategy using Binance (resolution source) as the anchor. Use when: (1) designing a mispricing/edge model (fair probability vs market price), (2) adding regime filters (trend vs range), (3) debugging bad entries/exits from events.jsonl/state.json, (4) running quick offline analysis or parameter sweeps with the bundled scripts.
Where can I find the source code?
You can find the source code on GitHub using the link provided at the top of the page.
SKILL.md Source
# Polymarket Trader
Maintain a profitable **BTC 1h Up/Down** strategy by anchoring decisions to **Binance BTCUSDT** (the resolution source) and enforcing anti-churn/risk rules.
## Workflow (use this order)
1) **Confirm the market type**
- This skill is optimized for `bitcoin-up-or-down-*` 1h markets (Binance 1H open vs close).
2) **Compute the anchor signal (Binance)**
- Fetch 1m closes + the 1h open for the relevant hour.
- Compute volatility (sigma) and time-to-expiry.
- Convert to **fair probability** for Up/Down.
3) **Trade only when there is measurable edge**
- Enter only if `edge = fair_prob - market_price` exceeds a threshold.
- Add a directional guardrail: do not bet against the sign of the move when |z| is non-trivial.
4) **Exit using the right logic for the entry mode**
- Model entries: exit on **edge decay / model flip**; hold to preclose when confidence is extreme.
- Mean-reversion entries: exit on **reversion targets** (not model-tp), with strict churn limits.
5) **Validate with logs**
- Every suspected “nonsense trade” must be explained via:
- `reason` / `entry_mode`
- Binance-derived fair probability + z
- whether the correct exit block fired
## Bundled scripts
All scripts are designed to be run from the OpenClaw workspace.
### 1) Fetch Binance klines
- `{baseDir}/scripts/binance_klines.py`
- Pulls klines and prints JSON.
### 2) Dump/stabilization and regime metrics
- `{baseDir}/scripts/binance_regime.py`
- Computes ret5/ret15/slope10 + simple “stabilized” boolean.
### 3) Explain fills (events.jsonl) with Binance context
- `{baseDir}/scripts/explain_fills.py`
- Reads paperbot `events.jsonl` and prints a concise table for the last N fills:
- side/outcome/px/reason
- estimated fair_up + z
- “against trend?” flag
## References
- `{baseDir}/references/strategy.md` — the math model, parameters, and tuning checklist.Related Skills
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