Executive Pipeline Summary

# Executive Pipeline Summary

## Workflow purpose

Produce the monthly executive-grade pipeline summary: the document that leaves
the investments and development teams and goes to the executive and to the IC.
The pack is a cross-system rollup, synthesizing deal-pipeline posture
(Dealpath), active development pipeline posture (Procore), and posted capex
commitment exposure (Intacct) into a narrative-first board-ready or IC-ready
document.

The pack composes the pipeline layer of the executive story. It sits alongside
`workflows/executive_operating_summary_generation` (operating posture) and
`workflows/quarterly_portfolio_review` (portfolio trend). Together these three
packs cover the three executive narrative arcs: operating, portfolio, pipeline.

This pack is gated. Any final-marked external submission (board packet, IC
advance read, capital-partner memo) requires row 16 (board) or row 17 (IC
advance read, if the overlay requires IC gating) before transmission. The
formal submission bundle composition lives in
`workflows/executive_operating_summary_generation`; this pack stops at the
narrative + dashboard and an opened approval request.

## Trigger conditions

- **Explicit:** "monthly executive pipeline summary", "board pipeline
  summary", "IC docket summary", "capital deployment pace update", "pipeline
  concentration check", "declined deal hit rate report".
- **Implicit:** month close; board calendar approaching; IC calendar approaching
  (forward 90-day docket becomes active); Dealpath stage transition volume
  crosses overlay band; Procore commitment exposure crosses overlay band;
  concentration threshold (market / segment / JV partner) crossed; capital
  deployment pace ytd drifts below target band; material debt-market shift
  flagged.
- **Recurring:** monthly at month close; board-calendar-driven for board
  packet submission; IC-calendar-driven for IC advance-read composition.

## Inputs (required / optional)

| Input | Type | Required | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dealpath deal register | table | required | stage in {sourced, loi_signed, psa_signed, ic_approved, debt_term_sheet, close, funded, declined, on_hold} |
| Dealpath deal-milestone log | table | required | per-deal milestone state; ic_scheduled_date, expected_close_date |
| Dealpath IC decision log | table | required | approved, declined, deferred |
| Procore project roster | table | required | all active construction_projects + development_projects |
| Procore commitment register | table | required | open commitments + remaining exposure + retention |
| Intacct capex actuals feed | table | required | posted spend by capex_project dimension |
| Fund capital-deployment plan | yaml | required | per-fund ytd target and forward plan |
| Debt market context overlay | yaml | required | categorical band; update cadence per overlay |
| JV partner register | yaml | required | per-partner pipeline + owned dollar exposure |
| Portfolio concentration targets | csv | required | market / segment / jv partner thresholds |
| Sourcing funnel log | table | required | top-of-funnel additions T30 + broker / repeat-broker / direct flags |
| Declined deal register + outcomes | table | required | declined deals with transacted-elsewhere flag T12m |
| Asset_crosswalk | yaml | required | asset resolution |
| Market_crosswalk | yaml | required | geographic concentration resolution |
| Dev_project_crosswalk | yaml | required | dealpath deal <-> procore project <-> intacct project |
| Capex_project_crosswalk | yaml | required | procore project <-> intacct project |
| Tolerance-band schema | yaml | required | `reconciliation_tolerance_band.yaml` |
| Board packet template | md | conditional | required if audience = board |
| IC advance-read template | md | conditional | required if audience = ic |
| Quarterly portfolio review | pack | optional | for cross-linkage in narrative |
| Executive operating summary | pack | optional | for cross-linkage in narrative |

## Outputs

| Output | Type | Shape |
|---|---|---|
| Pipeline stage rollup | `dashboard` | `pipeline_stage_committed_dollars` (proposed) by stage; counts + dollars |
| Expected close schedule | `kpi_review` | `expected_close_by_month` (proposed) forward 12 months |
| IC docket forward 90 days | `kpi_review` | `ic_docket_forward_90d` (proposed); per-deal row |
| Capex commitment exposure | `kpi_review` | `capex_commitment_forward_exposure_dollars` (proposed) forward 12 months |
| Debt market context | `memo` | `debt_market_context_band` (proposed) + overlay citation |
| Capital deployment pace | `kpi_review` | `capital_deployment_pace_vs_target` (proposed) ytd |
| Declined deal hit rate | `kpi_review` | `declined_deal_hit_rate` (proposed) + cohort detail |
| Top-of-funnel sourcing health | `kpi_review` | `top_of_funnel_sourcing_health` (proposed) composite |
| JV partner concentration | `kpi_review` | `jv_partner_concentration` (proposed) per partner |
| Geographic concentration | `kpi_review` | `geographic_concentration_pipeline` (proposed) + owned context |
| Segment concentration | `kpi_review` | `segment_concentration_pipeline` (proposed) + owned context |
| Confidence bands | appendix | `confidence_band_per_metric` (proposed) — low/medium/high per metric |
| Narrative summary | `memo` | 1-2 pages, cited metrics, top-3 pipeline watch items |
| Draft board packet section | `operating_review` | if audience = board |
| Draft IC advance read | `operating_review` | if audience = ic |
| Approval request | object | row 16 (board) or row 17 (IC) opened on final |
| Confidence banner | banner | reference `as_of_date` + `status` + sample-tag surfacing |

## Output contract

Final-marked output MUST follow `_core/executive_output_contract.md`:
verdict-first block (recommendation, 3-bullet rationale, confidence,
materiality, next action), source-class labels on every numeric cell
(`[operator]` / `[derived]` / `[benchmark]` / `[overlay]` /
`[placeholder]`), and refusal-artifact shape when a required reference
is absent. Any `[placeholder]`-tagged cell blocks board / IC approval
request assembly (rows 16 / 17).

## Required context

Asset_class, segment (one or many), audience (`board`, `ic`, `internal_executive`),
org_id, period (month). Audience governs template and approval row. Fund_id is
required if the pack reports capital-deployment pace at fund grain. Board
calendar date is required if audience is `board`. IC calendar date is required
if audience is `ic`.

## Process

### Step 1. Audience resolution and period anchor

Resolve audience (`board`, `ic`, `internal_executive`). Load the corresponding
template and approval row:

- `board`: row 16, board packet template.
- `ic`: row 17 (if overlay requires IC gating; else advisory), IC advance-read
  template.
- `internal_executive`: advisory; overlay governs whether gated.

Anchor the period (typically prior-month close). Every forward-looking metric
is computed relative to the anchor.

### Step 2. Pipeline stage rollup

Pull the Dealpath deal register (per `dealpath_deal_pipeline/normalized_contract.yaml`
— Dealpath is primary for `deal` and `asset` through close per
`source_of_truth_matrix.md`). Bucket deals by stage:

- `sourced`
- `loi_signed`
- `psa_signed`
- `ic_approved`
- `debt_term_sheet`
- `close`
- `funded`
- `declined`
- `on_hold`

Compute `pipeline_stage_committed_dollars` (proposed) per bucket: sum of
`deal.deal_size` (or whatever canonical field carries dollar commitment,
resolved via the Dealpath adapter contract). Counts + dollars.

If any deal fails the Dealpath DQ check (`dp_completeness_ic_record`,
`dp_handoff_lag`, other), surface as a blocker line in the reconciliation
posture section. Do not silently exclude.

### Step 3. Expected close by month

For every deal with `deal.expected_close_date` populated, bucket by
forward month. Compute `expected_close_by_month` (proposed): forward 12
months, counts + dollars. Annotate any deal whose expected_close_date is in
the past and whose stage is not `close` / `funded` / `declined` —
stage-mapping inconsistency routes to development/investments data hygiene.

### Step 4. IC docket forward 90 days

Pull `deal_milestone.ic_scheduled_date` across open deals within the next 90
days. Compute `ic_docket_forward_90d` (proposed): per-deal row with deal_size,
stage, jv_partner, market, segment, and ic_scheduled_date. Sort by
ic_scheduled_date.

For each deal on the docket, annotate readiness state (per overlay: diligence
complete, debt term sheet status, committee materials ready). Readiness drift
is advisory here; IC-prep orchestration lives in
`workflows/pre_close_deal_tracking` and related packs.

### Step 5. Capex commitment exposure forward 12 months

Pull the Procore commitment register per the active development pipeline.
Compute `capex_commitment_forward_exposure_dollars` (proposed): sum of
`open_commitment.remaining` forward 12 months across all active projects. This
metric is inherited from `workflows/development_pipeline_tracking`; reuse the
computed value rather than recomputing unless the development pipeline tracker
has not run within the overlay-defined freshness window.

For each commitment, check `pc_recon_commitment_overdrawn`. Any overdrawn
commitment is surfaced here as a material blocker in the pipeline-to-posted-spend
reconciliation — route to Procore runbook `commitment_overdrawn`. Do not
propose capex reallocation here; that is
`workflows/cost_to_complete_review` + capex capital overlay.

Cross-system reconciliation posture cited: `pc_recon_commitment_vs_posted_spend`
(Procore vs Intacct), `pc_recon_commitment_overdrawn`, `dp_handoff_dev_lag`
(Dealpath-to-Procore handoff).

### Step 6. Debt market context band

Read `debt_market_context_band` (proposed) from debt-market overlay. This is
a categorical band (`tight`, `neutral`, `loose`), cited not computed. The
overlay carries the update cadence and the reasoning for the current band;
the pack surfaces both.

Forward implications: any band shift changes the close-certainty commentary on
deals in `debt_term_sheet` stage. Annotate the linkage; do not re-underwrite
deals here.

### Step 7. Capital deployment pace vs target

Read fund capital-deployment plan. Compute `capital_deployment_pace_vs_target`
(proposed): (capital_deployed_ytd / capital_deployment_target_ytd) per fund
overlay. capital_deployed_ytd is the sum of equity-call deployments ytd per
the fund's capital overlay; capital_deployment_target_ytd is the fund's ytd
deployment plan frozen at fund start or at the most recent approved plan
amendment.

Flag any fund where `capital_deployment_pace_vs_target` (proposed) is below
the overlay band (typically 0.85 floor) — escalate to cfo_finance_leader +
investments_lead. Do not propose a re-calibration here; that is fund-level
capital overlay.

### Step 8. Declined deal hit rate

Pull declined-deal register for the trailing 12 months. For each declined
deal, check whether the same asset (via `asset_crosswalk`) or substantially
similar asset transacted elsewhere within 12 months. Compute
`declined_deal_hit_rate` (proposed): (declined_deals_that_transacted_elsewhere /
total_declined_deals_in_period).

Attribution categories: priced-out (competitor paid above our underwriting),
diligence-findings (we declined for a discoverable risk), market-timing
(declined pre-market-move), stale-pipeline (declined and not transacted).
Cohort the hit rate by attribution category.

This metric backtests IC decision discipline. Not a proxy for
"should we have bought it" in isolation — overlay commentary governs
interpretation.

### Step 9. Top-of-funnel sourcing health

Compute `top_of_funnel_sourcing_health` (proposed): composite of
(new_deals_added_T30, broker_sourced_share, repeat_broker_share,
direct_sourced_share) from the sourcing funnel log. Compare to sourcing
overlay targets.

Low direct-sourced share or rising share from a small number of repeat
brokers is a concentration signal — route to development_lead for sourcing
coverage review.

### Step 10. JV partner concentration

Compute `jv_partner_concentration` (proposed): per-partner dollar exposure
across pipeline + owned. Compare to `portfolio_concentration_targets.csv`
(partner thresholds) and to the owned-asset JV mix.

Flag any partner whose combined pipeline + owned exposure crosses overlay
threshold — escalate to portfolio_manager + investments_lead.

### Step 11. Geographic and segment concentration

Compute:

- `geographic_concentration_pipeline` (proposed): market share of
  `pipeline_stage_committed_dollars` (proposed).
- `segment_concentration_pipeline` (proposed): segment share of
  `pipeline_stage_committed_dollars` (proposed).

Compare to `portfolio_concentration_targets.csv` and to owned-asset
concentration from `portfolio_concentration_market` (canonical). The narrative
covers both pipeline and owned, so concentration movement across the
pipeline-to-owned bridge surfaces.

Flag any crossing of overlay threshold — escalate to portfolio_manager +
investments_lead.

### Step 12. Confidence bands per metric

For every metric surfaced, compute `confidence_band_per_metric` (proposed):
categorical (low, medium, high) derived from:

- Reference freshness (per `reference_manifest.yaml` `as_of_expectation`).
- Source posture (sample / starter / live per
  `source_of_truth_matrix.md`).
- Cross-system reconciliation status (any blocker fires low confidence).

Confidence bands are prominent on the board-ready output. No metric is
surfaced without its band.

### Step 13. Reconciliation posture summary

Cite and surface the following cross-system reconciliation findings:

- `dp_completeness_ic_record`, `dp_handoff_lag`, `dp_handoff_dev_lag`
  (Dealpath dq + recon).
- `pc_recon_commitment_overdrawn`, `pc_recon_commitment_vs_posted_spend`,
  `pc_recon_co_approved_vs_invoice_posted`, `pc_recon_draw_approved_vs_cash_funded`
  (Procore recon).
- Any Intacct posting lag affecting capex commitment exposure.

Any blocker reduces the affected metric to `low` confidence and surfaces in
the reconciliation memo with runbook pointer.

### Step 14. Narrative synthesis

Compose narrative anchored to cited metrics. Structure per template
(typical: headline, pipeline state, capital deployment, concentration posture,
IC docket, declined-deal discipline, sourcing health, forward view).

- Reference every claim to a metric slug.
- Cite every reference with `as_of_date` and `status`.
- Annotate every metric with its confidence band.
- Surface any concentration, deployment, or declined-deal-resurrection
  signal as an explicit executive decision point — do not bury.

### Step 15. Draft package assembly

- **Board audience:** board packet section draft per overlay template.
- **IC audience:** IC advance-read draft per overlay template.
- **Internal executive audience:** condensed two-page summary.

The pack composes the draft and opens the approval request; it does not send.

### Step 16. Approval routing

- Row 16 (board final) for board audience.
- Row 17 (IC advance-read) for IC audience if overlay requires IC gating.
- Internal executive: advisory; overlay governs whether gated. Usually
  `draft_for_review`.

The workflow never releases a submission marked `final` without an approved
row. Transmission composition lives in
`workflows/executive_operating_summary_generation`.

### Step 17. Confidence banner

Every reference surfaced with `as_of_date` and `status`. Proposed metrics
flagged. Cross-system posture summary: Dealpath primary for deal pipeline;
Procore primary for active development + commitments; Intacct primary for
posted capex spend + capital deployment (where applicable). Per-metric
confidence bands are surfaced prominently; the board-ready output carries a
dedicated confidence section.

### Decision points and branches

- Concentration threshold crossed (market / segment / JV partner): escalate to
  portfolio_manager + investments_lead -> executive.
- Capital deployment pace below target band: escalate to cfo_finance_leader +
  investments_lead.
- Declined deal resurrection pattern: escalate to investments_lead; audit
  trail required per overlay; narrative covers attribution cohort.
- Dealpath DQ blocker: route to data_platform_team -> investments_lead.
- Procore recon blocker (commitment overdrawn): route to
  `workflows/cost_to_complete_review` + Procore runbook; capex commitment
  exposure metric drops to `low` confidence until resolved.
- Dealpath-Procore handoff lag: route to development_lead -> asset_mgmt_director.
- Board audience + final-marked: open `approval_request` row 16 before any
  transmission pathway.
- IC audience + final-marked + overlay requires gating: open
  `approval_request` row 17.

## Metrics used

See frontmatter. The pack primarily introduces pipeline-specific proposed
metrics (`pipeline_stage_committed_dollars`, `expected_close_by_month`,
`ic_docket_forward_90d`, `debt_market_context_band`,
`capital_deployment_pace_vs_target`, `declined_deal_hit_rate`,
`top_of_funnel_sourcing_health`, `jv_partner_concentration`,
`geographic_concentration_pipeline`, `segment_concentration_pipeline`,
`confidence_band_per_metric`). `capex_commitment_forward_exposure_dollars` is
inherited from `workflows/development_pipeline_tracking`. Canonical metrics
(`portfolio_concentration_market`, `asset_watchlist_score`, `budget_attainment`,
`forecast_accuracy`, `capex_spend_vs_plan`) are inherited-context only; not
recomputed here.

## Reference files used

- `reference/connectors/_core/stack_wave4/source_of_truth_matrix.md`
- `reference/connectors/adapters/dealpath_deal_pipeline/normalized_contract.yaml`
- `reference/connectors/adapters/dealpath_deal_pipeline/reconciliation_rules.md`
- `reference/connectors/adapters/dealpath_deal_pipeline/runbooks/dealpath_common_issues.md`
- `reference/connectors/adapters/dealpath_deal_pipeline/dq_rules.yaml`
- `reference/connectors/adapters/procore_construction/reconciliation_checks.yaml`
- `reference/connectors/adapters/procore_construction/runbooks/procore_common_issues.md`
- `reference/connectors/adapters/sage_intacct_gl/reconciliation_rules.md`
- `reference/connectors/master_data/asset_crosswalk.yaml`
- `reference/connectors/master_data/market_crosswalk.yaml`
- `reference/connectors/master_data/dev_project_crosswalk.yaml`
- `reference/connectors/master_data/capex_project_crosswalk.yaml`
- `reference/normalized/schemas/reconciliation_tolerance_band.yaml`
- `reference/normalized/approval_threshold_defaults.csv`
- `reference/derived/portfolio_concentration_targets.csv`
- `reference/derived/role_kpi_targets.csv`

## Escalation points

- Board submission: row 16. Final composition in
  `workflows/executive_operating_summary_generation`.
- IC submission: row 17 if overlay requires IC gating.
- Capital deployment pace below target: cfo_finance_leader + investments_lead
  -> executive.
- Concentration threshold (market / segment / JV partner) crossed:
  portfolio_manager + investments_lead -> executive.
- Declined deal resurrection pattern: investments_lead -> executive.
- Dealpath DQ blocker: data_platform_team -> investments_lead.
- Procore recon blocker (commitment overdrawn): data_platform_team ->
  construction_manager + asset_mgmt_director.
- Dealpath-Procore handoff lag: development_lead -> asset_mgmt_director.

## Required approvals

- Row 16 (board final submission) for board-audience finals.
- Row 17 (IC advance-read) for IC-audience finals where overlay requires
  IC gating.
- Internal executive summaries are advisory; overlay governs. Default is
  `draft_for_review`.
- No autonomous release of any final-marked external document. Transmission
  pathway composition lives in `workflows/executive_operating_summary_generation`.

## Failure modes

1. Reporting pipeline dollars without confidence bands. Fix: every metric
   carries a `confidence_band_per_metric` (proposed); board-ready output
   surfaces the band.
2. Silently excluding deals failing Dealpath DQ. Fix: DQ blockers are cited
   as a blocker line; affected metrics are not silently reduced.
3. Recomputing capex commitment forward exposure. Fix: inherit from
   `workflows/development_pipeline_tracking`; only recompute if the tracker
   has not run within freshness window.
4. Authoring pricing or re-underwriting language in the debt market context
   section. Fix: debt market context is a cited categorical band; individual
   deal re-underwriting lives in deal-level packs.
5. Proposing capital deployment pace corrections. Fix: fund-level capital
   overlay governs; this pack reports posture only.
6. Proposing a JV partner / market / segment concentration cap change. Fix:
   `portfolio_concentration_targets.csv` is overlay-driven; this pack reports
   breach and escalates.
7. Treating declined_deal_hit_rate as "should we have bought it". Fix:
   overlay commentary governs interpretation; cohort attribution is required.
8. Sending the board packet. Fix: transmission is gated at row 16.
9. Missing IC docket readiness drift because IC-prep orchestration is
   downstream. Fix: surface readiness drift as advisory; do not attempt to
   orchestrate IC prep here.
10. Sample overlay used as authoritative debt market context. Fix: debt
    market context band carries its own `as_of_date` + `status`; sample is
    surfaced explicitly.
11. Letting a Procore commitment-overdrawn finding silently pass into the
    capex commitment exposure metric. Fix: `pc_recon_commitment_overdrawn`
    downgrades the metric to `low` confidence and appears in the
    reconciliation memo.

## Edge cases

- **Declined deal resurrection.** A previously-declined deal re-enters the
  pipeline (new sponsor group, re-offering, recapitalization). The pack
  flags the resurrection with an audit trail citation to the original
  decline and attribution category. Any re-engagement requires an explicit
  executive decision — do not default to pipeline inclusion without
  investments_lead confirmation.
- **Multi-asset closing in same period.** Two or more closings land in the
  same month; `pipeline_stage_committed_dollars` (proposed) swings
  materially between `close` and `funded`. Narrative distinguishes between
  scheduled close and actual funded to avoid double-counting. Forward
  capex commitment exposure steps up once Procore projects execute —
  `dp_handoff_dev_lag` watch begins immediately for each new closing.
- **Board-meeting freeze.** Board-calendar freeze window bans in-flight
  changes to the pipeline narrative. Pack behavior: if invoked during
  freeze, produce the narrative + dashboard but defer `approval_request`
  row 16 opening until freeze lifts; annotate the freeze in the output.
- **IC docket shift mid-month.** An IC meeting moves forward or back
  within the 90-day window. Recompute `ic_docket_forward_90d` (proposed)
  at each invocation — do not cache across invocations.
- **JV partner with multiple deal vehicles.** A single partner holds
  positions across multiple fund vehicles. Aggregate per-partner exposure
  across vehicles for `jv_partner_concentration` (proposed); annotate the
  cross-fund concentration per overlay.
- **Fund mid-close.** A fund closes mid-period; capital_deployment_target_ytd
  shifts. Use the most recently approved plan as the denominator; annotate
  the amendment date.
- **Debt market overlay stale.** Debt market context band not updated
  within overlay freshness window. Surface the stale as explicit; the
  metric drops to `low` confidence; narrative does not assert market
  direction.
- **Declined pool concentration on a single attribution category.** If the
  share of declines attributed to a single category exceeds the
  `declined_pool_attribution_concentration_band` from
  `reference/normalized/schemas/reconciliation_tolerance_band.yaml`, the
  narrative surfaces the concentration as a sourcing / underwriting signal
  — escalate to investments_lead for discipline review.
- **Pre-close deal with no expected_close_date.** Deal lacks
  `deal.expected_close_date` in Dealpath. Annotate as a Dealpath DQ gap;
  do not impute. Affects `expected_close_by_month` (proposed) confidence.
- **Pipeline asset crosswalk ambiguity.** `asset_crosswalk.yaml` does not
  resolve the pipeline asset to a single canonical asset_id (duplicate
  match or no match). Flag; do not collapse. Declined-deal hit rate
  computation excludes the ambiguous row until resolved.

## Example invocations

1. "Build the monthly executive pipeline summary for April 2026; audience board."
2. "IC docket forward 90 days; include readiness drift annotations."
3. "Capital deployment pace vs target for the core fund this month."
4. "Concentration check — pipeline + owned — by market and JV partner."
5. "Declined deal hit rate for Q1 2026 with attribution cohorts."
6. "Top-of-funnel sourcing health check this month."

## Example outputs

### Output — Monthly executive pipeline summary (abridged, April 2026, audience: board)

**Audience.** Board. Row 16 approval will open on final.

**Pipeline stage rollup.**

| Stage | Count | Dollars | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| sourced | 18 | $485M | medium |
| loi_signed | 6 | $210M | medium |
| psa_signed | 4 | $165M | high |
| ic_approved | 2 | $92M | high |
| debt_term_sheet | 3 | $118M | medium |
| close | 1 | $48M | high |
| funded | 2 (April) | $86M | high |
| declined (T30) | 7 | $305M | high |
| on_hold | 3 | $110M | medium |

`pipeline_stage_committed_dollars` (proposed) aggregated above. Two deals
funded April; three deals in debt_term_sheet stage are exposed to
`debt_market_context_band` (proposed) = `neutral` per overlay.

**Expected close by month.** `expected_close_by_month` (proposed):

| Month | Count | Dollars |
|---|---|---|
| May | 1 | $48M |
| June | 2 | $88M |
| July | 1 | $45M |
| Aug | 0 | $0 |
| Sep | 1 | $35M |
| Oct-Mar | 6 | $240M |

**IC docket forward 90 days.** `ic_docket_forward_90d` (proposed):

| IC date | Deal | Deal size | Stage | JV partner | Market | Readiness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Highland Mill | $48M | psa_signed | None | Charlotte | ready |
| 2026-05-12 | Glenwood Flats | $52M | loi_signed | Partner_B | Nashville | diligence_gap |
| 2026-06-09 | Ridge Park | $40M | loi_signed | None | Dallas | ready |
| 2026-07-14 | Brookline | $38M | psa_signed | Partner_A | Atlanta | debt_term_sheet_pending |

**Capex commitment forward 12 months.**
`capex_commitment_forward_exposure_dollars` (proposed) = $312M across 11 active
construction projects. Inherited from `workflows/development_pipeline_tracking`
run 2026-04-10 (within freshness window). Two commitments overdrawn on
Riverbend (cite `pc_recon_commitment_overdrawn`); metric confidence band =
`medium` until resolved.

**Debt market context.** `debt_market_context_band` (proposed) = `neutral`
per debt_market overlay as-of 2026-03-31 (sample). Overlay staleness within
tolerance; confidence = `medium`.

**Capital deployment pace.** Core fund:
`capital_deployment_pace_vs_target` (proposed) = 0.94 ytd. Within band (0.85
floor). Confidence = `high`.

**Declined deal hit rate.** T12m `declined_deal_hit_rate` (proposed) = 24%.
Attribution cohorts: priced-out 62%, diligence-findings 14%, market-timing
8%, stale-pipeline 16%. Confidence = `high`. No single-category concentration
>50%; investments discipline within overlay band.

**Top-of-funnel sourcing health.** `top_of_funnel_sourcing_health` (proposed):
T30 new deals = 9; broker-sourced share 72%; repeat-broker share 48%;
direct-sourced share 28%. Repeat-broker share above overlay target — route
to development_lead for broker-coverage review. Confidence = `medium`.

**JV partner concentration.** `jv_partner_concentration` (proposed):
Partner_A combined pipeline + owned 14.2%; Partner_B 9.6%; Partner_C 7.1%;
others <5% each. All within overlay threshold (15% cap). Partner_A approaching
cap — watch-item. Confidence = `high`.

**Geographic concentration.** `geographic_concentration_pipeline` (proposed):
Southeast 58% of pipeline dollars; pipeline + owned aggregate 56% (above
55% overlay target but within tolerance band). Confidence = `high`.

**Segment concentration.** `segment_concentration_pipeline` (proposed):
middle_market 92%; luxury 8%. Within overlay mandate. Confidence = `high`.

**Confidence bands summary.** Per-metric confidence ranges from `medium`
(pipeline stage dollars at `sourced` / `loi_signed`, debt market context,
commitment exposure due to Riverbend recon blocker) to `high` (closed /
funded dollars, declined hit rate, concentration rollups). No `low`
confidence metric surfaced without explicit narrative treatment.

**Reconciliation posture.** Two Procore commitments overdrawn on Riverbend
(`pc_recon_commitment_overdrawn` blocker) — runbook pointer surfaced;
capex commitment exposure confidence = `medium` until resolved. One Dealpath
DQ warning (`dp_handoff_lag`) on a Q1 closed deal — development_lead
notified. No Intacct posting-lag blockers.

**Top-3 pipeline watch items.**

1. Riverbend commitment overdrawn — construction + asset_mgmt priority;
   capex commitment exposure confidence = `medium` until resolved.
2. Repeat-broker share above overlay — route to development_lead for
   broker-coverage review; no sourcing blocker yet but trending.
3. Partner_A JV concentration at 14.2% vs 15% cap — watch-item; next
   month's board update if Partner_A's May deal closes.

**Draft board packet section.** Composed per overlay template; cited
metrics; confidence bands per metric surfaced prominently; reconciliation
memo included as appendix.

**Approval request.** `approval_request` row 16 opened; pending board final
submission. Transmission pathway through
`workflows/executive_operating_summary_generation`.

**Confidence banner.**
```
References: source_of_truth_matrix@wave_4_authoritative,
dealpath_deal_pipeline/normalized_contract@2026-04-08 (starter),
dealpath_deal_pipeline/dq_rules@2026-04-08 (starter),
procore_construction/reconciliation_checks@2026-04-08 (starter),
sage_intacct_gl/reconciliation_rules@2026-04-08 (starter),
asset_crosswalk@2026-04-08 (starter),
market_crosswalk@2026-04-08 (starter),
dev_project_crosswalk@2026-04-08 (starter),
capex_project_crosswalk@2026-04-08 (starter),
reconciliation_tolerance_band@2026-03-31 (sample),
approval_threshold_defaults@2026-03-31 (starter),
portfolio_concentration_targets@2026-03-31 (starter),
role_kpi_targets@2026-03-31 (starter).
Proposed metrics (flagged): pipeline_stage_committed_dollars,
expected_close_by_month, ic_docket_forward_90d,
capex_commitment_forward_exposure_dollars (inherited),
debt_market_context_band, capital_deployment_pace_vs_target,
declined_deal_hit_rate, top_of_funnel_sourcing_health,
jv_partner_concentration, geographic_concentration_pipeline,
segment_concentration_pipeline, confidence_band_per_metric.
Canonical extensions required: deal, deal_milestone, commitment
(tracked separately under canonical change-control).
Cross-system posture: Dealpath primary for deal pipeline;
Procore primary for active development + commitments; Intacct
primary for posted capex spend.
```