validate

# Idea Validation

The #1 reason startups fail is "no market need." Validation isn't about asking people if they'd use something — it's about observing whether they'll pay, sign up, or take action. This skill helps you test demand before writing a single line of code.

## Core Principles

- Ideas are free. Validated demand is valuable. Never skip validation because you're excited.
- "Would you use this?" is a useless question. "Will you pay $X right now?" is the only one that matters.
- The goal of validation is to fail fast and cheap — not to confirm what you already believe.
- You don't need to build anything to validate. Landing pages, waitlists, and conversations come first.
- Validation is not a one-time event. You re-validate at every stage: idea, MVP, pricing, features.

## Pressure-Test Your Idea

Before running experiments, pressure-test the idea itself. These six questions expose fatal flaws fast — answer them honestly, not optimistically.

### Which Questions to Answer

| Your Stage | Focus On |
|-----------|----------|
| Pre-product (just an idea) | Q1, Q2, Q3 |
| Have a prototype or early users | Q2, Q4, Q5 |
| Have paying customers | Q4, Q5, Q6 |

### The Six Questions

**Q1 — Demand Reality:** What evidence do you have — beyond your own experience — that someone else actually wants this? Not "I think people need it." What have you seen, heard, or measured?

**Q2 — Status Quo:** What are people in your field doing right now to handle this — even badly? What does that workaround cost them in time, money, or errors?

**Q3 — Desperate Specificity:** Name one specific person who needs this most. Not "dentists" — which dentist, at which practice, with what problem? If you can't name someone, you haven't found your customer yet.

**Q4 — Narrowest Wedge:** What's the smallest version of this someone would pay for this week — not after you build the platform? One screen, one workflow, one outcome.

**Q5 — Observation:** Have you watched a colleague struggle with this task without helping them? What surprised you about how they actually do it vs. how you assumed?

**Q6 — Future-Fit:** How does your industry change in 3 years, and does that make this tool more essential or less?

> **Interest is not demand.** Waitlist signups are not demand. Someone would be genuinely upset if it disappeared — that's demand.

> **"Everyone in my field needs this"** means you haven't found anyone specific yet. The more universal you think the need is, the less validated it actually is.

> **The status quo is your real competitor** — not the other startup. It's the spreadsheet-and-email workaround people already live with. You have to be dramatically better than "good enough."

---

## Validation Levels

### Level 1: Problem Validation (Do People Have This Problem?)

Before you validate your solution, validate that the problem exists and is painful enough to pay for.

**Where to look for evidence:**

| Source | What to Look For |
|--------|-----------------|
| Reddit, forums, communities | People complaining about the problem repeatedly |
| Google Trends | Search volume for problem-related terms |
| Competitor reviews (G2, Capterra) | 1-3 star reviews mentioning unmet needs |
| Twitter/X | People publicly frustrated with current solutions |
| Your own experience | You've felt this pain yourself (strongest signal) |

**Tell AI:**
```
Research the problem of [describe the problem].
Find evidence that people are actively looking for solutions:
- Search volume for related terms
- Reddit/forum threads where people discuss this pain
- Competitors that exist (even partial solutions)
- How much people currently pay to solve this (or workarounds they use)
Summarize: Is this a real, painful, frequent problem?
```

### Level 2: Solution Validation (Will People Want YOUR Solution?)

**The Mom Test** — Never ask leading questions. Instead:

| Bad Question | Good Question |
|-------------|--------------|
| "Would you use an app that does X?" | "How do you currently handle X?" |
| "Would you pay for this?" | "What do you spend on solving X today?" |
| "Do you think this is a good idea?" | "Tell me about the last time X was a problem." |
| "Would this be useful?" | "What have you tried? What didn't work?" |

**Conversation template:**
```
1. "What's the hardest part about [area]?"
2. "Tell me about the last time that happened."
3. "How did you deal with it?"
4. "What didn't work about that solution?"
5. "If you could wave a magic wand, what would change?"
6. "How much time/money does this cost you today?"
```

Talk to 10-15 potential customers. If 8+ describe the same pain with intensity, you have signal.

### Level 3: Willingness to Pay (Will They Open Their Wallets?)

The strongest validation signals, ranked:

| Signal | Strength |
|--------|----------|
| They pre-pay before the product exists | Strongest |
| They sign up for a waitlist with a credit card | Very strong |
| They sign up for a waitlist with email | Strong |
| They click a "Buy" button (fake door test) | Moderate |
| They say "I'd definitely pay for that" | Weak |
| They say "That's a cool idea" | Worthless |

---

## For Domain Experts: Your Network Is Your Validation Lab

If you're a [profession] building for other [professionals], you already have what most founders spend months trying to get: direct access to target customers.

- **Skip the cold outreach.** Message 10 peers you actually know: "Hey, how do you handle [pain]? I'm thinking about building something."
- **You've already had 1,000 customer conversations.** Mine your memory: what do colleagues complain about at conferences, in group chats, over lunch?
- **Your professional associations are focus groups.** Post in the group: "Quick question — how long does [task] take you?" Count the replies.
- **Validate in days, not weeks.** You don't need to "find" your market. You're standing in it.

See **translate** skill for identifying which pain is worth building for, and **niche-advantage** for leveraging your professional network.

---

## Smoke Tests (Validate Without Building)

### Landing Page Test

Create a landing page describing your product. Drive traffic. Measure signups.

**Tell AI:**
```
Create a landing page for [product idea] that:
- Clearly describes the problem and solution
- Has a CTA: "Join the waitlist" or "Get early access"
- Collects email addresses
- Optionally asks 1-2 qualifying questions (role, company size)
Target: 100 visitors, measure signup rate.
```

**Benchmarks:**
- < 5% signup rate → Weak interest. Rethink positioning or audience.
- 5-15% signup rate → Moderate interest. Worth exploring further.
- 15%+ signup rate → Strong signal. Build an MVP.

### Fake Door Test

Add a button or link for a feature that doesn't exist yet. Measure clicks.

```
1. Create a CTA for the feature: "Try [Feature Name]"
2. When clicked, show: "This feature is coming soon!
   Sign up to be the first to know."
3. Collect email.
4. Measure click rate.
```

### Pre-Sale Test

Offer the product at a discount before it exists. If people pay, you have validation.

```
"[Product] launches in [timeframe]. Get 50% off as a founding member.
$X/month (normally $Y/month). Cancel anytime."
```

If 10+ strangers pay, build it. If 0 pay, pivot.

---

## Go / No-Go Decision Framework

After running validation experiments, score your idea:

```
Validation Scorecard:
                                          Score (1-5)
Problem frequency (daily=5, yearly=1):    ___
Problem intensity (hair on fire=5):       ___
Willingness to pay (pre-paid=5):          ___
Market size (>$1B TAM=5):                 ___
Your unique advantage (deep=5):           ___
Current solutions (none/bad=5):           ___
                                   Total: ___/30

25-30: Strong go. Build the MVP.
18-24: Promising. Run one more validation experiment.
12-17: Weak. Pivot the angle or audience.
<12:   No go. Find a different problem.
```

---

## Where to Find People to Validate With

| Channel | Cost | Speed | Quality |
|---------|------|-------|---------|
| Your personal network | Free | Fast | Medium (biased) |
| Reddit / niche communities | Free | Medium | High (real users) |
| Twitter/X DMs to people with the problem | Free | Medium | High |
| Facebook/LinkedIn groups | Free | Medium | Medium |
| Google Ads to landing page | $50-200 | Fast | High (intent-based) |
| Cold email to prospects | Free | Slow | High |
| Indie Hackers / HN | Free | Medium | Medium |

**Tell AI:**
```
Help me find 5 specific online communities where [target audience]
hangs out and discusses [problem area]. For each, give me:
- The community name and link
- How active it is
- Rules about self-promotion
- A non-spammy way to start conversations about [problem]
```

---

## Validation Timeline

```
Week 1: Problem research + 5 customer conversations
Week 2: 5 more conversations + landing page live
Week 3: Drive traffic to landing page (100+ visitors)
Week 4: Analyze results, make go/no-go decision

Total cost: $0-200
Total time: 10-15 hours
```

---

## Common Mistakes

| Mistake | Fix |
|---------|-----|
| Building before validating | Spend $0 and 2 weeks on validation before writing any code |
| Asking friends and family | Talk to strangers who match your target customer |
| Asking "Would you use this?" | Ask about their current behavior and spending |
| Taking "That's a cool idea" as validation | Only actions count: signups, pre-payments, clicks |
| Validating once and stopping | Re-validate at every stage (pricing, features, positioning) |
| Giving up after 3 conversations | Talk to at least 10-15 people before deciding |
| Over-validating (analysis paralysis) | Set a deadline. Decide by week 4 |

---

## Success Looks Like

- Clear evidence of demand before writing a single line of code
- 10+ customer conversations documented with recurring pain points
- Landing page with measurable signup rate
- Go/no-go decision backed by data, not gut feeling
- Confidence that you're building something people will pay for

---

## Related Skills

- **translate** — Turn your professional expertise into a product spec (start here if you're a domain expert)
- **niche-advantage** — Leverage your industry network and credibility for distribution
- **customer-research** — Go deeper with interviews and personas
- **market-research** — Size the market and analyze competitors
- **landing-page** — Build the landing page for your smoke test
- **plan** — Write the spec once you've validated the idea
- **pricing** — Validate willingness to pay alongside demand